Since leaving the NHS London Strategic Health Authority in April 2009, Paul Corrigan has worked as a management consultant and an executive coach helping leaders create and develop step changes with their organisation. Paul recently blogged on the issue of Would 50+ doctors standing for Parliament at the next election have any impact? His conclusion was that they would not. He gives his reasons here.Paul Corrigan is wrong, however. This is why:
-“Being the second most important issue at the next election will matter a lot and could have an impact on the outcome, but it will not be the defining issue.Therefore whilst voters trust doctors with their lives – and would think they know aboutthe NHS, the biggest issue on everyone’s mind will be the economy.”
Paul Corrigan
Paul is confusing what political parties wanting to get into government believe is the most important issue and what voters believe is the most important issue in an election. The Conservatives tried to make the previous election about the economy and did indeed scare a good number of people. The results of the election were mixed, however. The Conservative government did not generate enough seats to even make a government. Most people voted for another political party despite their clear message of economic fear and the need for extreme cuts. You will notice that since assuming government, the Conservative Party likes to talk a great deal less about the economy and it being the most important issue. Their remedies are either simply not working or not working fast enough to justify the need to rush them into government. Since the press and the voters have yet to really turn on the Conservative Party on the failure of their economic strategy to effect the swift improvement they convinced many voters was needed, this also suggests that the economy is not the biggest and defining issue – despite early claims.
-“For every question the doctors will need to answer about the NHS they will
have to answer three about the economy...When you stand for Parliament people expect you to know about such things.”
Paul is confusing what political parties wanting to get into government believe is the most important issue and what voters believe is the most important issue in an election. The Conservatives tried to make the previous election about the economy and did indeed scare a good number of people. The results of the election were mixed, however. The Conservative government did not generate enough seats to even make a government. Most people voted for another political party despite their clear message of economic fear and the need for extreme cuts. You will notice that since assuming government, the Conservative Party likes to talk a great deal less about the economy and it being the most important issue. Their remedies are either simply not working or not working fast enough to justify the need to rush them into government. Since the press and the voters have yet to really turn on the Conservative Party on the failure of their economic strategy to effect the swift improvement they convinced many voters was needed, this also suggests that the economy is not the biggest and defining issue – despite early claims.
-“For every question the doctors will need to answer about the NHS they will
have to answer three about the economy...When you stand for Parliament people expect you to know about such things.”
Paul Corrigan
That is true for any new prospective politician. Candidates cannot be expertsat everything and becoming a prospective MP necessitates a steep learning curve. Who, in society, might better exemplify the ability to manage the demands of that learning curve than doctors? The ConDem government themselves even believe that doctors should have a greater role to play in economic decisions – since this forms part of the proposed NHS changes against which the 50 doctors are taking a stand. If what Paul says is true then really only economists could truly be fit for purpose in government. If expertise is an important factor then by the same argument, MPs with a level of expertise in the economy should absolutely not be making decisions about medicine and NHS strategies.
-“The example that everyone brings up here is the Member for Wyre Forest who won in the election in 2001 as a local pro-NHS candidate... If there is a local NHS issue where politicians have ‘let the people down’ trusting a local doctor would have some impact. The combination of local NHS campaign and local doctor develops a trust relationship with the voters that could bring about a radical change in voting patterns.”
Paul Corrigan
Paul forgets that the Conservative government is being seen to have ‘let the people down’ and that is before the changes have been brought in a voters have experienced the inevitable negative consequences (there will always be some). The Conservatives promised they would protect the NHS and leave it alone. At best they are now being seen to restructure it again, despite their promises; at worst, they are being viewed as privatising the NHS via the back door. This makes it both a national and local issue and can be fought by the doctors on both platforms and as Paul admits himself, given those circumstances, they could have an impact.
-“Such candidates (i.e. Independents) do gather votes, but they tend to take them away from other opposition parties – not the sitting MP.”
Paul Corrigan
Times are changing and the political landscape is increasingly unpredictable. No commentator predicted a Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition government before the election. Bookies didn’t take a single bet on such an outcome. The Respect Party (a minor political party) recently won an astounding victory over the Labour Party in the Bradford West by-election, with more than a 36% swing. In Bradford also the biggest issue was not the economy but the ongoing war in Afghanistan. This swing was not generated by taking votes off other opposition parties – they were taken from the sitting party. Paul is simply not taking into account the context of 50 independents standing at the same time and leading with the same popular issue. Despite being Independents, every small victory or surge in support will then be reported nationally and column inches extended to the 49 other candidates. If one candidate is seen likely to win then it bolters the support for others, since research has indicated that voters are much more likely to vote an Independent candidate in if they believe they have a chance of winning. The 50 doctors have years to work up such momentum – all the while the existing government fighting battles on all sides, some caused by opposition parties and candidates and some by their own incompetence (e.g the recent fuel crisis). Across this time many more Independent candidates will present themselves to join and add to such momentum. These candidates stand a better chance than ever again either a ConDem government that no one feels they voted (and if their first quarter is anything to go by will not improve the economy as promised) for or a previous Labour administration who is seen as recently failing. Unfortunately, Paul Corrigan is wrong in his assumptions. A great deal will depend upon how events unfold (as they always do in politics) but to suggest that it is a foregone conclusion that the 50 doctors will have little or no impact is short sighted and lacking in insight.
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